Scientists are warning that increasingly severe storms will heighten the risk of flooding in the next 30 years. This could lead people in Maine and throughout the United States to leave or avoid regions vulnerable to climate-related disasters, according to a study published in the journal Nature Communications.
Areas already experiencing population declines are expected to be joined by new risk areas, especially along coastlines and rivers. Research from the Brooklyn-based nonprofit First Street Foundation predicts that from 2000 to 2020, about 3.2 million fewer Americans resided in climate-risk areas. This number is projected to increase to 5 million fewer residents in emerging risk areas over the next three decades. Meanwhile, low-risk flood areas may see population growth.
Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street, emphasized the far-reaching consequences of these trends on property values, neighborhood demographics, and commercial activity.
The study reveals that areas in Maine and elsewhere that were considered safe for development in the past two decades are now experiencing the impacts of climate change and rising flood risks. Waldo County, Maine, is particularly vulnerable to significant flood risk and population loss from 2000 to 2020, especially along riverbanks. Belfast, along the Passagassawakeag River where it meets Belfast Bay, faces the highest risk.
Other counties, such as Lincoln, Hancock, Sagadahoc, and Washington, also showed high risks during the same 20-year period. In contrast, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Somerset, and York counties had lower flood risks.
The study examined U.S. census data on population shifts and census blocks (geographic units comprising 250-550 housing units). It identified approximately 20 percent of census blocks in Waldo County with climate abandonment areas frequently flooded from 2000 to 2020, one of the highest percentages in the state. The study predicts that nearly 26 percent of these blocks will become new climate abandonment areas from 2020 to 2053, causing people to leave or avoid them.
For example, the Belfast Bay area had 77 climate abandonment areas with high flood risk from 2000 to 2020, resulting in a population decrease from 2,567 in 2000 to 1,889 in 2020, with 201 of those lost residents attributed to the flood risk.
Despite these trends, Belfast Mayor Eric Sanders noted that he hasn’t observed people leaving the town but has noticed the midcoast area filling up. Local efforts, such as the Climate Crisis Committee, aim to mitigate the effects of rising sea levels.
While Maine may not face the same level of risk as low-lying areas like Isle De Jean Charles in Louisiana, which is relocating its entire population due to rising sea levels and climate change, it still needs to focus on short-term adaptation to address rising sea levels and storm flooding. Towns across Waldo County are updating their flood zone plans and addressing stormwater management and culvert issues.
In Belfast, flood concerns concentrate from the boathouse to the downtown bridge. The city has hired an engineering firm to assess stormwater impacts and is developing a hazard mitigation plan, which may include reinforcing the breakwater to prevent damage.
Erin Herbig, Belfast city manager, emphasized the need for proactive measures to address climate change impacts in the bay, rather than reacting after the fact.
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DISCLAIMER: Author is under many pen names. This article was rewritten based on these links: Worsening floods may force some Mainers to flee their homes (bangordailynews.com)
